What happens if the rail ferries stop sailing?

In the future, Sweden may become dependent on the route through Denmark as the only link for rail freight to and from Europe. But what if the Øresund Bridge was to suddenly be blocked? Artelia is studying scenarios like this for Region Skåne.

The rail ferries that currently sail between Sweden and Germany, transport approximately 1.5 million tonnes of rail freight annually. This freight is usually heavy goods, such as wood, paper and steel. The remaining 7 million tonnes go through Denmark and by rail over the Danish bridges.

Potentially, there could easily be room for the last 1.5 million tonnes on the route, and from a purely economic point of view it is certainly worth considering, since ferry transport is a very expensive option. The environmental impact is also far greater than trains, which are based on green electricity.

There are therefore several distinct advantages to discontinuing the rail ferries, but also a number of significant risks that should be taken into consideration.

Security of supply versus costs
History has shown that the railway line through Denmark may break down, which may cause problems for Swedish companies exporting to Europe in particular. Therefore, the ferries have a certain justification as extra security of supply. If the ferries stop sailing, it may be a risk factor that the Øresund Bridge closes due to an unforeseen event.

The dilemma that forms the crux of the matter is whether the probability of a breakdown in the Danish infrastructure is commensurate with the additional cost that the continued operation of the ferries entails.

The purpose of Artelias nalysis is therefore to reduce the guesswork and provide a much more qualified basis for decision making.